Revolutions, it is said, are so called as they keep happening again and again. Case in point: Egypt. How often have you seen a crisis in Egypt? Changes of Government for the Egyptian people are becoming more regular than Series of Sherlock. Here is your very brief guide to understand what exactly is, has been and will be going on in Egypt.
The Past
For 30 years, Hosni Mubarak ruled Egypt as President, until in 2011 the people of Egypt decried no more. Hundreds of thousands of people, from every background imaginable, took to the streets of Egypt demanding the resignation of Mubarak. They were tired of poor economic conditions, the brutality of the police, no freedom of speech and rife corruption. After months of protests and violence, Mubarak delegated some powers to Vice-President Suleiman, who subsequently announced that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) had been entrusted with the leadership of the country.
Following this, demonstration continued, but the SCAF organised elections, for which it would not field a candidate. By not fielding a candidate, this eliminated all chances of people suggesting that the revolution had ended with a military coup. Instead, the Muslim Brotherhood, an organisation that had been persecuted under Mubarak, had its political ban lifted and was allowed to field a political candidate for the presidency, under the Freedom and Justice Party banner. Enter Mohammed Morsi, whose 2012 Presidential Campaign proved to be successful.
A year later, there was revolution again. So what was it this time? Accusations that his party had partaken in Ikhwanization, effectively installing members of the Muslim Brotherhood into key positions of power, didn’t sit well with the opposition. In conjunction with proposals to change the constitution, leaving Morsi with extensive, borderline authoritarian, judicial powers, as well as growing fears that the Muslim Brotherhood had an underlying Islamist agenda, people again took to the streets (though to be fair, quite a lot of them were still there from last time). The military issued an ultimatum to reach a political compromise between government and the people to restore order. When that didn’t happen, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced on National Television that Morsi had been, like his predecessor, ousted from government. This was largely seen as a military coup.
The Future
For his leading role in the 2013 change of government, al-Sisi was largely seen as a hero. The role that the military had played in both revolutions, as well as the fact that the military has always held high esteem in Egypt has left it with an all-time high popularity. And as the head of the military, as well as hero of the 2013 revolution, al-Sisi is the poster boy of Egypt. He is so popular, in fact, that he won the Reader Poll for the TIME Person of the Year. Which, given that he effectively led a military coup against a democratically elected government, is rather odd.
Whilst initially expressing no desire to run for President, he has now bowed to overwhelming popular support. A number of campaigns were started in an attempt to convince him to run, as well as a number of prominent political figures expressing their support for his candidacy. He has yet, however, to formally announce himself. However, it does seem inevitable that he will, given the current state of play. Within mere hours, the interim President Adly Mansour had promoted al-Sisi to Field Marshall (the highest rank within the Egyptian military) and the SCAF have given him their blessing to answer the overwhelming desire of the Egyptian people. It would be extremely surprising if he did not run.
Of course, there is not universal support for him. Supporters of the recently ousted Muslim Brotherhood, of which there are a sizeable number, have branded al-Sisi as a traitor and the overthrow as a blatant coup d’etat. There are also those that regard al-Sisi with suspicion, as it has only been 3 years since Mubarak, of a military background himself, was ousted. And the response to those that protest against the military and al-Sisi has been both swift and brutal.
Popular opinion, however, seems to be on the side of the general. Many are predicting that not only will he win, but it will be a landslide victory. Quite how long he will last, however, is debatable. Along with the presidency is the responsibility of fixing the Egyptian economy, which lays in tatters, as well as assuring the whole country that he is finally the man for the job. Naturally, only time will tell, but it would be nice for the Egyptians to have a break from their political turmoil.